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Author Topic: It's A Recession Out There  (Read 2200 times)
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chilese
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« on: July 30, 2011, 02:57 PM »

And in the Swap Meet too.  Huh

10 years ago, used kites were pretty darned inexpensive.

I bought 2 Vented AirFXs for under $100 and many, nice kites were well under $100.

The Swap Meet became a cool place to follow. And as people realized there were bargains to be had, prices slowly crept up to "normal" levels.

And now, in more difficult times, kites which would have been snapped up at current prices are languishing. Unless the seller is very aggressive in pricing (e.g. Randy's tweaked Nirvana for under $200 delivered), sweet kites are sitting.

It is understandable and sad at the same time.  Sad
« Last Edit: July 31, 2011, 12:36 PM by chilese » Logged

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King-J
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2011, 04:04 PM »

I would call it pretty close to a depression, I'm in business for myself, my workers comp is up this year 10% higher than last, never had a clam, my general liability is up, material cost is up, but yet in order to stay competitive I have to charge less, no profit and no charge for overhead, pretty sad when my employees make 3x as much as me. I just hope to stay in business a little longer, retire and sell off equipment or business, buy more kites and forget everything else.
O I forgot to add the air resources board wants me to replace my diesel engines in my pumps by 2015 lol
« Last Edit: July 30, 2011, 04:15 PM by King-J » Logged

My Family, With More To Be Born                          
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2011, 12:13 AM »

I would call it pretty close to a depression, I'm in business for myself, my workers comp is up this year 10% higher than last, never had a clam, my general liability is up, material cost is up, but yet in order to stay competitive I have to charge less, no profit and no charge for overhead, pretty sad when my employees make 3x as much as me. I just hope to stay in business a little longer, retire and sell off equipment or business, buy more kites and forget everything else.
O I forgot to add the air resources board wants me to replace my diesel engines in my pumps by 2015 lol
  I Feel you there JOhn.  I had to let even my part timers go just to be able to cover operating expenses.  No one wants to pay what the jobs are worth anymore and they ALWAYS want more than what they are willing to pay for.  HEll I had an estimate the other day that I submitted with $2900 in equipment and $1400 in labor and was told I should be able to do it all for $1500.  WHolsale cost on the equipment and materials is $2697.78.  My supplies have gone up 45% in the last 2 years. INsurances 10-20% depending on which policy so I should raise my prices 55% on average to compensate but you can't or you loos customers.  What ya gonna do.  WHere's the bail out for the little guy.   Angry Angry
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lylenc
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2011, 07:32 AM »

It's a continuing global financial recession/depression starting from 2005 to 2007, with too much personal and government debt. This type of recession lasts longer and is more severe than the more common business/inventory type of recession. Individuals and businesses were whacked in the first round of this recession and continue to be whacked. Governments are getting whacked too, now. It's almost game-over as investors quit buying countries' debt unless at unreasonalbe rates ... Greece two-year debt is priced at 30% interest rate. Many other countries, including USA, are heading down the same road. There is nothing to show for all the new debt added worldwide, except for the problem getting worse.

Lack of growth of personal debt is currently being replaced by additonal growth in government debt for the illusion of a recovery. Governments try to stimulate economies by kicking the can down the road buying time to let the problems fix themselves. That works in the more common business/inventory type recession, usually within two or three years. It's not working this time.

More debt compounds the problem in a financial recession. Adding more debt is like giving an alcoholic more alcohol to cure himself. There aren't any painless options remaining. The "hyped recovery" of the last two years is quickly being revealed as the illusion it is/was. We've gone through phases of Denial and It's Contained. There are two or three more phases, with Acceptance coming when everyone gives in to reality about half way through the crash. The chant will change from each rebound's "we've seen the worst and we are recovering" to "it's going down forever."

For the record, there is no trolling, politics, religion or other banned material in the above comments. I didn't start this topic, but will participate in a friendly discussion. Everyone and all parties are equally responsible ... or irresponsible for the problems created over the last forty, sixty, or more years. This is just my opinion, which you may ignore, if you don't agree with it, and add your own opinion.
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Craig     Walla Walla, WA     Just One More!
chilese
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2011, 07:52 AM »

I was just attempting to talk about the price of kites recently.  Roll Eyes

But the thread redirected itself immediately (and without politics  Smiley ) to its present course.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2011, 08:26 AM by chilese » Logged

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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2011, 08:51 AM »

unfortunately lower prices have to effect the few builders(of kites) left but on the upside, if used kites become a great deal again ,flyers like me (no others around)will be able to buy and sell a few to try something new
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have fun kurt
lylenc
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2011, 11:36 AM »

The title of the topic helped get the discussion quickly off the originator's intended course. However, the discussions are on topic and would have gotten to the same point even if a different title was used. The problems are broad, far reaching, and over lapping. Kites are just one example of the same problems in other sectors, with kites being the limit of the discussion anticipated; for example, the same thing is happening with housing and cars.

Prices of used kites are going up relative to new kites to the point many can't afford used or new kites, while their incomes are declining or disappearing completely. There is no room for the kite builder (or other businessmen) to pass on the higher costs with so many consumers up against the wall trying to make ends meet, just like the businessmen.

Rental rates exceed mortgage payments for purchase of a home. Even homes that are drastically lower priced and lower mortgage rates than 2005 are out of reach, with so many lacking the income or down payment/equity required to purchase or refinance a home. Rentals are getting beyond reach when landlords require one year of rent in advance. Car dealers are looking for used cars to sell. It's to the point used cars prices are creeping closer to new car prices (same as kites currently).

Eventually, house prices, rental rates, cars, etc, and prices of new and used kites will go down to some affordable values based on much lower household incomes.

Currently, we are seeing inflation in some areas and deflation in others as the world goes through this ten or more year swing from inflation to deflation. For example, food, utilities, rent and other goods are in inflation ... home values and incomes in deflation. Some feel this turnaround started as early as 2000 in some sectors, 2005 for real estate, and later years for many others.
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Craig     Walla Walla, WA     Just One More!
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2011, 12:38 PM »

Well said Lylenc. There have been several kites on the swap lately  I would snap up just to try out and resale if i don't like em but you have to weigh priorities.  Household  bills have gone up even though income has not so funds for the fun stuff is non existent for a lot of people these days.

 Utilites are up 15% on average , food 15-20%, local Gov raising property taxes though housing prices don't support it, more things like car insurance becoming mandatory, ticket fines have doubled in a lot of states with the added "administrative fees".  Income taxes increasing in different sectors already to pay for these bail out packages the average JOe Blue Collar never benefited from. 

The big corporations that helped propogate this mess through unfettered greed got paid for their screw ups (and still get unearned bonuses) while the small businesses are left to languish and struggle or fold.

ANd more on Johns topic.  The prices in the swap have been more than fair for what is being sold.  St337's geese, for example, are well worth the asking price and I would grab em myself If I could spare the funds but other's not so much.  I think most of us remember the $250 fearless that had more Tedlar repair tape on it than a skyscraper HVac system has duct tape.  Older designs, even those only a few years ago languish more as priorities shift to new kites that can do everything. MOre bang for the buck.
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KaoS
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2011, 05:35 PM »

... and for those of us outside the US, right now isn't a time to be selling kites. 

Your dollar is so low, we either have to maintain a US dollar price and take a big hit, or convert our prices to US dollars and you guys pay 20% more than a year ago

Combine that with a US buying public that are finding it harder to justify spending on "big boys toys", and things grind to a prompt crawl (or stop)

Sad
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Kevin Sanders

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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2011, 06:05 PM »

The big corporations that helped propogate this mess through unfettered greed got paid for their screw ups (and still get unearned bonuses) while the small businesses are left to languish and struggle or fold.

you're absolutely right. the shame of it is, small business by many of particular politics is a euphemism for big business, and somehow manage to convince the public otherwise. dodging facts, and citing ideology has become preferable to doing anything on behalf of the public at large. while we in america may lead this trend, it's a growing problem across all western nations.

if that statement is considered too political please feel free to remove it. it's not meant to be about left v right, but rather fact v rhetoric.
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Fdeli
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2011, 06:10 PM »

... and for those of us outside the US, right now isn't a time to be selling kites. 

Your dollar is so low, we either have to maintain a US dollar price and take a big hit, or convert our prices to US dollars and you guys pay 20% more than a year ago

Combine that with a US buying public that are finding it harder to justify spending on "big boys toys", and things grind to a prompt crawl (or stop)

Sad
Not to sound like an ass but welcome to the other side of things.  US companies had the same choices not long ago.  Drop prices to tap into off shore markets and take the hit or don't bother exporting.  Ironically, companies exporting to us that have currency higher then the dollar, that not long ago  pushed for lower priced US exports are raising prices now that the shoe is on the other foot
« Last Edit: August 01, 2011, 10:27 AM by Ca Ike » Logged
Ca Ike
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2011, 06:18 PM »

The big corporations that helped propogate this mess through unfettered greed got paid for their screw ups (and still get unearned bonuses) while the small businesses are left to languish and struggle or fold.

you're absolutely right. the shame of it is, small business by many of particular politics is a euphemism for big business, and somehow manage to convince the public otherwise. dodging facts, and citing ideology has become preferable to doing anything on behalf of the public at large. while we in america may lead this trend, it's a growing problem across all western nations.

if that statement is considered too political please feel free to remove it. it's not meant to be about left v right, but rather fact v rhetoric.
Heh one of the banks I used to deal with told me that small businesses are too big of a risk to give loans or credit to and not long after that this same bank wrote off over 200 mil in losses (or more) when enron folded and another 30+ mil when lehman bros failed and still loan out multi millions to big corps with payment clauses tied to profit margins, yet they won't give a small business a mere couple grand to help make keeping the doors open possible or expand without the owner giving up damn near everything to get it.
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Allen Carter
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2011, 09:40 PM »

Good Lord!

I only read about half of all that financial hand wringing.

We're talking about the price if kites here.

The biggest reason for the stabilization of used kite prices is simple: greatly reduced number of active flyers.

10 years ago there were lots of '90s vintage kites available cheap because a LOT of kites were sold in that decade. The combination of people getting out of kiting in droves or moving on to newer kite designs put a lot of stuff on the market. These days the pool of active flyers is so small, the selection is limited. There aren't as many bargains because there's less competition.
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Allen, AKA kitehead
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2011, 11:34 PM »

yea its pretty bad.  I have gotten a lot of people interested when I'm out flying but when they hear the prices of good kites they flinch even at the $50-$60 budget level.  I actually have to go into the detailed cost of replacing lots of cheap 10-20  kites that may not even fly vs spending a good $60-$300 and having a kite that will last with a bit of repair and a few replacement parts here n there and work for  the majority of the flying levels before they understand.

ANd then I send em to steve or the swap meet here Tongue
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KaoS
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« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2011, 02:14 AM »


Not to sound like an ass...

No you don't, you bring up some very good points
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Kevin Sanders

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